Regional Forecasts of the Registered Nurse Workforce in California
In most regions of California, there is now a shortage of registered nurses, and shortages will grow over the next 25 years. This report presents forecasts of supply and demand for RNs in regions of California. A previous report estimated future supply and demand for RNs statewide, finding a current and widening gap between the supply of and demand for RNs through at least 2030, with demand outstripping supply by between 99,945 and 122,223 full-time equivalent (FTE) RNs by 2030 (Spetz and Dyer, 2005). In forecasting regional RN supply, this analysis takes into account the aging of the RN workforce, new graduates (including those from international nursing programs), intra-state movements of RNs, interstate flows of RNs, and changes in license status. The forecasts presented in this report demonstrate that the nursing shortage varies greatly across California regions, but that all regions face a growing shortage over the next decades.